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Situazione del governo italiano nel novembre 2011

Che i conti relativi al bilancio dello Stato non tornino è ormai chiaro a tutti,e le misure annacquate in discussione in questi giorni, quelle previste nel maxi-emendamento alla legge di stabilità per intenderci, sono solo un ultimo strenuo tentativo di porre un argine di contenimento al debito e una flebile spinta alla ripresa dell’economia.
Ma i conti che in queste ore interessano forse di più al presidente del consiglio sono quelli che tra qualche giorno decideranno la sorte del suo governo.


Continua infatti l’esodo più o meno ufficiale di parlamentari tra i due schieramenti,e tutto viene giocato intorno a numeri davvero ridotti perchè se è vero che “politicamente” parlando il Governo è ormai finito, in quanto non appare più in grado di affrontare il tema della crisi con “posizioni forti”, numericamente parlando, almeno fino al prossimo voto di fiducia, la maggioranza in parlamento c’è.

E gli scenari che potrebbero aprirsi se questi pochi voti venissero a mancare rendono la situazione ancora più imprevedibile, perchè da una parte ci sono i “malpancisti” che vorrebbero sventare il ricorso alle urne, almeno fino a quanto si voterà con la legge “porcellum”, vale a dire con l’elezione “a chiamata diretta” che non saprebbero come e dove collocarsi, voti questi che potrebbero mancare al Governo solo con una prospettiva di Governo di Transizione, o Geverno tecnico, o Governo di Responsabilità nazione etc.

Quello che è certo, perchè ribadito più volte, è che qualsiasi Governo alternativo a quello attuale non avrebbe l’appoggio della Lega.
A questo punto qualsiasi alternativa possibile dovrebbe basarsi esclusivamente sui numeri delle opposizioni e dei “tranfughi” del PdL, una bella gatta da pelare per Bersani e Casini, e soprattutto per il Presidente Napolitano che da tempo ormai invoca larghe intese per affrontare il momento difficile.
Sapremo nei prossimi giorni il destino di questa legislatura, intanto continuiamo ad interrogarci sul fatto se sia più dannoso votare in primavera o restare “appesi” allo Scilipoti di turno.