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I sondaggi del Pd: pericolo Grillo

 

I sondaggi in queste settimane li fanno tutti. Più o meno pubblicamente, con il divieto di pubblicazione e con il divieto di dichiararne gli esiti, ma, in un modo o nell’altro, qualcosa sempre trapela. In effetti gli esiti dei sondaggi certe volte sfuggono obiettivamente di mano a chi li conduce, ma, tante altre volte, nella maggioranza delle occasioni a dire il vero, rappresentano un’arma politica a tutti gli effetti. E quella di far trapelare prima del voto i risultati dei sondaggi è una strategia a tutti gli effetti.

Pd in calo, Grillo in risalita

A conti fatti i sondaggi cui facciamo riferimento, vale a dire quelli non autorizzati e condotti in  maniera privata dai singoli partiti, un’indicazione di voto la danno. E rappresentano una preoccupazione soprattutto per il Pd. In effetti sembra che i risultati dei sondaggi condotti dal partito di Bersani nel corso dell’ultima settimana di campagna elettorale diano il Pd in calo, o comunque il Pd completamente fermo. Netto, di contro, il recupero da parte del Movimento 5 Stelle di Beppe Grillo, anche in seguito a TsounamiTour in Val di Susa. Grillo: siamo tutti No Tav. Non si può parlare di gerarchie capovolte all’interno del fronte di centrosinistra, ma, senza dubbio, si può parlare di forbice molto accorciata tra il Pd – che rimane, in maniera intuibile, il primo partito di centrosinistra – e il Movimento 5 Stelle di Beppe Grillo, sempre più seconda forza nell’arco di centrosinistra nonostante il Tutti contro Grillo di qualche giorno fa.

Il pericolo pareggio al Senato

Ulteriore fonte di preoccupazione per quanto riguarda il Pd, deriva direttamente, strano a dirsi, dal calo di consensi di Scelta Civica di Mario Monti. Sempre facendo affidamento ai sondaggi privati in mano al centrosinistra, pare che un’ulteriore frenata nella capacità di persuasione dell’elettorato indeciso da parte del Professore, sia palesata dai numeri. E, a questo punto, sembra che gli uomini di Monti al Senato si potrebbero contare sulle dita di una mano. Massimo due mani, per dirlo con una battuta. Mentre sappiamo che Bersani, in caso di risultato abbastanza alla pari con Berlusconi, avrà bisogno disperato di un 15-20 senatori montiani per mettere su la sua squadra di governo.